Does the trend of cotton price change?
Does the trend of cotton price change?
"The world is bustling for profit; the world is bustling for profit." The same is true for bulk commodities. Buying low and selling high is the eternal truth. At present, Zheng Mian is in a slump, from a high of 17000 yuan / ton to 15300 yuan / ton, a drop of about 10%. When Zheng Mian was making great strides, the market once thought that the high point should reach 20000 yuan / ton. Once it was discouraged, the market would be declining one after another.
Of course, there are complex reasons for Zheng Mian's correction. The first is the change of macro factors. Crude oil is the mother of bulk commodities, which is the main force of the whole country. Its rise and fall have an important impact on global commodities. This round of crude oil was affected by the vaccine incident, showing a wide range of shocks, which was obviously bad for commodities.
Recently, emerging countries around the world have begun to raise interest rates. Although economically developed countries insist on maintaining low interest rates, it is obvious that the impacted emerging countries can not continue to bear the commodity inflation and devaluation caused by the release of money. In this regard, China has repeatedly stressed that it is necessary to implement sound fiscal and monetary policies, and that the future shift should be slow and not too fast. Such events or news have a great impact on the market. The interest rate hike is like a "grey rhinoceros". It has been waiting at a certain time. It is not clear when it will come, but it is certain that it will appear.
The Sino US talks last weekend were full of gunpowder and had a great impact on cotton. In 2018, the Sino US economic and trade relations cooled down, and cotton prices began a bear market for two years, which shows how important Sino US relations are to cotton. Although the talks have ended, but from the release of the news, the relationship between the two countries will go through many tests, cotton prices will continue to be under pressure.
From the above situation, it seems that the cotton price rise is coming to an end. In my opinion, the factors affecting the general trend of cotton price have not changed, and cotton still has the ability to take action. The main reason for the rise in cotton prices after the first fall in 2020 is the release of water from COVID-19 and global currencies. At present, with the support of vaccines, the future economic recovery is a certain event, and the only uncertainty is whether the recovery will take place sooner or later. As the anchor of global commodity pricing, the interest rate of US bonds has attracted global attention all the time, and the yield of US bonds has been constantly reaching new heights, indicating that the market has begun to worry. However, the Federal Reserve has repeatedly said that it supports economic development and increases employment, and does not care that the inflation rate is higher than 2% for a period of time. The author believes that the epidemic is still full of uncertainties, and countries will never risk raising interest rates. From the historical experience, the commodity market will have a 1-2 year boom after the crisis. At this time, it is a long way from the recovery of COVID-19 just after the past year.
In short, the commodity market opportunity rate in 2021 will probably not be higher than that of last year, but there is still room for improvement.
We hope that the overall textile product prices will be stable.